The loss of key low-band spectrum raises concerns about AST's market strategy
Category: Business
Shares of AST SpaceMobile (ASTS) experienced a notable decline, falling nearly 7% on Thursday, October 8, 2026, as the company faces increasing competition following SpaceX's recent acquisition of a nationwide low-band spectrum portfolio. This development poses a direct threat to AST's ability to expand its satellite phone service, particularly as it seeks to connect ordinary mobile devices directly to satellites.
AST SpaceMobile's stock closed at $56.93 on Thursday, down 6.1% from the previous day's close of $60.65. The decline was attributed to SpaceX securing Federal Communications Commission (FCC) authorization to build a 15,000-satellite direct-to-cell network using its own spectrum, allowing it to connect directly to ordinary phones without relying on wireless carriers. This move significantly impacts AST's go-to-market strategy, which depends on partnerships with these carriers.
On the same day, AST shares traded as low as $55.96, marking a substantial drop from recent highs. The stock has been under pressure due to a combination of factors, including broader market weakness, concerns about rising debt in the space industry, and competitive threats from SpaceX's advancements.
In response to the news, AST SpaceMobile shares slid 4% after hours on Thursday, closing at $56.93, the lowest level in over a month. The company’s stock has seen a nearly 3% decline for the week, marking its second consecutive weekly drop. Other major telecom stocks, including AT&T, T-Mobile US, and Verizon, also fell about 6% in overnight trading, indicating a broader concern within the sector.
Roger Entner, a telecommunications analyst at Recon Analytics, noted that the acquisition of the low-band spectrum by SpaceX is a game-changer, stating, "This is the last piece of the spectrum puzzle needed for SpaceX to provide complete phone coverage in America." He emphasized that the implications of this deal extend beyond AST SpaceMobile, as it reshapes the competitive dynamics of satellite communications.
The acquisition of the low-band spectrum by SpaceX closes off a potential path for AST SpaceMobile to expand its low-band capacity, which is particularly important for providing reliable indoor coverage. AST SpaceMobile had been pursuing these frequencies, but the deal with SpaceX leaves its existing spectrum arrangements with AT&T and Verizon intact.
AST SpaceMobile still holds long-term access to lower mid-band spectrum in the U.S. and Canada through agreements with Ligado Networks. Entner suggested that Ligado could be the next focus for AST, potentially indicating a strategic pivot as the company navigates its future in the competitive satellite market.
AST SpaceMobile's stock performance has been under scrutiny, particularly in light of recent analyst downgrades and revenue forecast cuts. The company faced a B. Riley downgrade to Neutral on October 2, which slashed its price target from $85 to $65. Concerns about cash needs, launch timing, and operating losses have compounded investor anxiety, especially as Wall Street estimates a cash burn of approximately $3.2 billion before 2029.
As of October 9, 2026, AST SpaceMobile's stock was trading at $51.80, down 9.01%, with a market cap of $17.07 billion. In comparison, SpaceX shares rose 1.56% to $163.08, indicating a contrasting market sentiment between the two companies.
Looking ahead, regulatory approval for the Grain Management transaction remains a key checkpoint for SpaceX. Investors will be closely watching whether regulators sign off on the deal and if any terms are disclosed. Meanwhile, AST SpaceMobile's strategy may need to adapt to the changing competitive environment, particularly in light of the implications of the FCC's October 29 agenda, which includes proposals that could open additional megahertz of airwaves for leasing and auction.
Entner's prediction that "Ligado is next" puts AST's agreements with Ligado front and center as the company seeks to solidify its position in the satellite communications market. The outcome of these developments could have lasting effects on AST’s operational capabilities and market position.
The consensus among analysts remains cautious, with a Hold rating prevailing. The average analyst price target for AST SpaceMobile is approximately $82.83, but recent downgrades and market conditions have left many investors skeptical about achieving these targets in the near term. Some analysts still express optimism about AST's valuation and potential for growth if satellite production and launches stay on schedule.
In the midst of this volatility, AST SpaceMobile's ability to navigate the regulatory hurdles and competitive pressures will be closely monitored by investors and analysts alike. The company's future depends on its strategic decisions in the coming months as it seeks to reclaim its standing in the rapidly changing satellite communications market.
As the situation develops, stakeholders will be looking for clarity on AST SpaceMobile's path forward, especially in light of the competitive pressures from SpaceX and the regulatory environment that continues to evolve.