El Niño's Influence Looms Over 2026 Hurricane Season Forecast

As spring settles in, meteorologists are already looking ahead to the Atlantic hurricane season, which runs from June through November. This year, forecasters from Colorado State University (CSU) predict a slightly below-average season, with 13 named storms expected, including six hurricanes and two major hurricanes classified as Category 3 or stronger. This forecast marks a notable shift, as only one Atlantic hurricane season since 2016 has ended with below-average storm numbers: 2025.

Last year, the Atlantic basin experienced 13 named storms, with five of them becoming hurricanes, including the devastating Category 5 storm Melissa, which wreaked havoc on Jamaica. CSU’s initial forecast for 2026, which estimated 17 storms, was an overshoot, as was the official forecast from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). Historical data indicates that predicting hurricane activity this far in advance carries inherent risks, especially as the planet continues to warm due to fossil fuel pollution.

Phil Klotzbach, a senior research scientist and lead author of CSU’s forecast, emphasized that the impending El Niño is the "dominant factor" influencing this year’s hurricane outlook. The transition from La Niña, which has been in place since fall 2022, to neutral conditions occurred in April 2026. El Niño, characterized by warmer-than-average ocean temperatures in the equatorial Pacific, is expected to develop rapidly by mid-summer, coinciding with the peak of the hurricane season, which spans from mid-August to mid-October.

El Niño conditions typically lead to increased wind shear in the Atlantic, a phenomenon where wind speed or direction changes with altitude. This increased wind shear can either weaken storms or inhibit their formation altogether. Klotzbach noted, "There is still a lot that can change between now and the peak of the season," highlighting the uncertainty that accompanies long-range forecasts.

Adding to the complexity of this year's predictions is the potential for a "super El Niño," which NOAA suggests could develop later this year. This phenomenon, which may be one of the strongest in decades, is characterized by ocean surface temperatures at least 2 degrees Celsius warmer than average. NOAA currently estimates a 61% chance of El Niño developing between May and July 2026, with a 50% chance of it reaching strong status and a 25% chance of becoming a super El Niño by fall or early winter.

Historically, super El Niños have occurred only five times since 1950, with the last occurrence in 2015-16. The current forecasts indicate that the transition from La Niña to El Niño has already begun, as warm ocean waters near the equator are becoming more prevalent. This warming is accompanied by a surge of westerly winds in the western Pacific, which are pushing warm waters eastward, contributing to rapid warming in the eastern Pacific.

Paul Roundy, an El Niño expert from the University of Albany, indicated that the strength of the recent westerly wind burst is likely the strongest in over 50 years. He stated, "The likelihood of this event (stronger El Niño) failing, especially considering the highly confident westerly wind forecasts over the next two weeks, must be small." This westerly wind burst, combined with twin tropical cyclones near the equator, is expected to bolster the developing El Niño.

El Niño’s potential impacts extend beyond hurricanes. Typically, stronger El Niños produce more sinking air and stronger wind shear in the Atlantic Basin, which can lead to quieter hurricane seasons. Conversely, the eastern and central Pacific hurricane seasons often see increased activity during strong El Niños. The implications of a super El Niño could also affect global weather patterns, including rainfall and temperatures, from summer through winter.

For the upcoming winter, a stronger El Niño usually enhances the subtropical jet stream, leading to wetter conditions across the southern United States, including California and Florida. Meanwhile, the northern U.S. often experiences milder and drier winters during strong El Niños. Global precipitation patterns also shift, with many regions, including parts of Africa and Australia, trending drier, whereas regions like Ecuador and Peru may see increased rainfall.

One of the most consistent effects of El Niño is a spike in global temperatures. The extra heat from the equatorial Pacific is released into the atmosphere, contributing to warmer global temperatures. The previous super El Niño events in 2015 and 2016 set records for global warmth, and with last year being the third warmest on record, it seems likely that 2026 could see new temperature highs.

As the climate continues to warm, scientists are increasingly concerned about the potential for super El Niño events to drive sudden climate regime shifts in both temperatures and precipitation. A study released in December 2025 highlighted that these shifts could become more pronounced in a warming world, raising alarms about the future impacts of climate change.

In the face of these forecasts, it’s clear that the upcoming hurricane season is fraught with uncertainty. The interplay between the developing El Niño, ocean temperatures, and atmospheric conditions will be closely monitored by meteorologists and scientists alike. As Klotzbach noted, "The exact timing and strength of El Niño will determine how much of an influence the pattern has on the season." With the peak of the hurricane season just months away, the Atlantic as forecasters work to refine their predictions.

In the meantime, the public is encouraged to stay informed about the upcoming hurricane season and to prepare accordingly, as the unpredictable nature of weather patterns continues to pose challenges for communities along the coast. As we anticipate the 2026 hurricane season, the confluence of factors at play serves as a reminder of the complex and ever-changing dynamics of our climate.