Meteorologists warn of extreme weather patterns globally, with El Niño expected to intensify by late 2026.
Category: Climate & Environment
The world is bracing for the return of El Niño, a climatic phenomenon that could significantly impact global temperatures and weather patterns. With predictions indicating an 80% chance of El Niño developing by autumn 2026, experts are sounding alarms about the potential for extreme weather events worldwide.
According to the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), the likelihood of El Niño emergence is expected to reach 62% between June and August 2026, and rise to 80% by fall. This natural oscillation, characterized by the warming of the equatorial Pacific Ocean, acts like a climate amplifier, raising average global temperatures and intensifying extreme weather conditions.
El Niño and its counterpart, La Niña, are integral components of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), which affects weather systems globally. Currently, La Niña conditions are present, but they are projected to transition to a neutral state by April, paving the way for El Niño to take hold. This oscillation typically occurs every two to seven years and lasts between nine months to a year, but its effects can be felt long after the phenomenon has dissipated.
"El Niño is capable of increasing global temperatures, which we witnessed when 2024 reached 1.55 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels, marking it the hottest year on record," said Professor Fredolin Tajudin Tangang from the Academy of Sciences Malaysia. He noted that if a strong El Niño develops, 2026 could potentially surpass previous temperature records, raising concerns about public health and environmental stability.
Specific regions are already preparing for the impacts of this climatic shift. The Northwest United States, for example, is forecasted to experience a drier and warmer than average spring and early summer, likely continuing through the end of the year. The National Weather Service's Climate Prediction Center announced on March 19 that El Niño conditions would lead to above-average temperatures and below-average precipitation across Oregon, Washington, Idaho, and Northern California.
Oregon State Climatologist Larry O’Neill emphasized the significance of the warm ocean conditions that precede an El Niño. "If you want to make a really strong El Niño, this is the way to start," he remarked, noting the 82% chance that these conditions will persist into winter. The odds of a strong El Niño forming are currently estimated at 33%.
Unfortunately, the region's snowpack is already suffering. On March 19, Washington's snowpack was reported at only 61% of average, with Oregon's statewide snowpack at a meager 24% of normal. These figures are concerning, particularly when considering that December through February 2025-2026 was the warmest such three-month period recorded over the last 131 years.
But it's not just the Pacific Northwest that is feeling the heat. A massive marine heatwave has been affecting the waters off the West Coast since last summer, raising ocean temperatures by 3 to 4 degrees Fahrenheit above normal. NOAA scientists have noted that this marks only the third time on record that such a large section of the coastal ocean has remained so warm for an extended period without being associated with an El Niño.
Meanwhile, the impacts of El Niño are not confined to the U.S. The phenomenon can trigger droughts, floods, and shifts to marine ecosystems worldwide. For example, during previous El Niño events, fishing stocks have been adversely affected due to reduced nutrients rising from the ocean depths, impacting food security for communities reliant on fishing.
Health experts are also raising concerns about the potential for heat-related illnesses due to the extreme weather. With Malaysia currently transitioning from its Northeast Monsoon season into an inter-monsoon phase characterized by unstable weather patterns, the risk of heatwaves is increasing. Dr. Mohd Dzulkhairi Mohd Rani, an associate professor at Universiti Sains Islam Malaysia, warned that the combination of festive activities and extreme heat could lead to serious health risks, including heatstroke.
"The hot weather we are experiencing now does not merely cause discomfort. It can also lead to more serious health risks, including heatstroke, which can be life-threatening," he cautioned. He stressed the importance of taking immediate precautions during extreme heat, such a moving to shaded areas and staying hydrated.
El Niño's effects can also disrupt global economic growth. The UN Food and Agricultural Organization reported that the extreme weather linked to the 2015-2016 El Niño affected food security for over 60 million people. With the potential for another strong El Niño on the horizon, the risks to agriculture, fisheries, and public health are mounting.
Experts are closely monitoring the situation, but the uncertainty surrounding the precise intensity and duration of the upcoming El Niño event remains. NOAA estimates the probability of a strong event between October and December at roughly one-third. The last strong El Niño occurred from 2023 to 2024, ranking among the five strongest on record, though it did not reach extreme levels.
With climate change already increasing the severity and frequency of extreme weather events, the potential return of El Niño raises pressing questions about humanity’s preparedness for the challenges that lie ahead. The interplay between these natural climate patterns and human-driven climate change complicates predictions, making it imperative for governments, communities, and individuals to remain vigilant.
What remains clear is that the world must brace for the impacts of El Niño, whether through increased temperatures, altered precipitation patterns, or heightened health risks. The next few months will be telling, and the global community must act to mitigate these risks and adapt to the changing climate.