As global competition heats up, South Korea aims to secure its place in the burgeoning humanoid robot market.
Category: Science
As we approach the mid-2020s, the world stands on the brink of a technological revolution in humanoid robotics. By 2026, experts predict that humanoid robots will transition from research and development phases to commercial application, marking a "commercial threshold" in the industry. This shift is not just a milestone for technology but a battleground for global supremacy, with South Korea aiming to leverage its manufacturing strengths to carve out a competitive edge.
The Korea Institute of Machinery and Materials (KIMM) recently released a report stating that the global shipment of humanoid robots is projected to reach an annual figure of one million units between 2030 and 2035. This forecast is supported by Bank of America, which anticipates that shipments will grow from a cumulative total of 18,000 units in 2025 to a staggering one million annually by the early 2030s. Similarly, Goldman Sachs forecasts a surge from about 8,000 units in 2025 to 136,000 units in 2030, and an impressive 2.1 million by 2035.
One of the driving forces behind this anticipated growth is the rapid decline in manufacturing costs. Currently, the average cost of producing a humanoid robot is approximately $35,000. This figure is expected to plummet to between $13,000 and $17,000 within the next five years due to advancements in mass production and component optimization. Notably, Chinese company Unitree is leading the charge, with its 2024 H1 model priced at $90,000, dropping to $5,900 for the 2025 R1 model—an astonishing price reduction that positions these robots within reach of the average consumer.
This price innovation is a key factor in making 2026 the year of commercialization, as outlined in the KIMM report, which references Wright's Law. This principle states that for every doubling of cumulative production, the unit cost decreases by 15% to 20%. As the market shifts, the competitive dynamics are also changing. The United States, led by tech giants like Tesla and Nvidia, is at the forefront of AI foundational models and semiconductor design. In stark comparison, China is ramping up production with over 140 companies entering the market, projected to capture about 70% of new model releases by 2025.
South Korea, on the other hand, has strengths in semiconductor, battery, and communication infrastructure. Yet, it faces challenges such as a lack of foundational AI technology and a fragile supply chain for humanoid-specific components. In response, major Korean companies are ramping up efforts to establish a foothold in the humanoid ecosystem. Hyundai Motor Company plans to build a dedicated robot factory capable of producing 30,000 units annually by 2028, leveraging its partnership with Boston Dynamics.
Samsung Electronics is also making strides by investing in Rainbow Robotics to bolster its production capabilities. The KIMM’s report outlines a two-pronged strategy for South Korea to remain competitive: first, to achieve technological independence by localizing the production of core components such as actuators and control systems; and second, to establish international collaborations with tech giants like OpenAI and Google to bridge the gap in AI foundational models.
As the humanoid robot market expands, the urgency for South Korea to secure its position in the global arena grows. The KIMM emphasizes that the next few years will be a "golden time" for determining technological and market dominance. Kim Hee-tae, a senior researcher at KIMM, notes, "The era of mere technology showcase is over; now, the focus is on how quickly we can generate revenue on-site." He stresses the importance of using South Korea’s advanced manufacturing infrastructure to address labor shortages exacerbated by low birth rates and an aging population through a robot-driven economy.
Meanwhile, as China rapidly expands its humanoid ecosystem, companies like Unitree are set to begin international sales of their R1 model through platforms like AliExpress, targeting markets in North America, Europe, Japan, and Singapore. The R1 is priced around 650,000 won (approximately $2,990), making it the most affordable model from Unitree, though international pricing remains undisclosed.
Chinese firms are expected to increase humanoid robot production by as much as 94% this year, with Unitree and Aijibot projected to account for 80% of total shipments. The rapid growth of these companies can be attributed to a standardized AI supply chain that supports flexible manufacturing, collaborative development, and dedicated supply contracts, allowing for efficient supply chain management and high-quality production.
As South Korean companies work to establish their own ecosystems, industry experts stress the importance of securing a reliable supply chain for components and developing a system for refining and utilizing manufacturing data effectively. The KIMM report outlines the need for a strategic approach to data management, emphasizing that simply accumulating data is insufficient. Instead, it is imperative to implement a system that selectively collects and processes necessary data for the development of humanoid robots.
Looking ahead, the humanoid robot sector is set to undergo a transformation that could redefine labor, productivity, and the very fabric of society. As South Korea navigates this complex terrain, the decisions made in the coming years will be instrumental in determining the nation’s standing in the global robotics market. With the clock ticking toward 2030, for South Korea’s technological ambitions in humanoid robotics.
In a final note, the KIMM is also launching a call for papers for its upcoming journal, "Journal of Machinery Industry Research," which will be published on June 30, 2026, to contribute to the academic and policy development in the machinery industry.